Ealing Council’s Local Plan consultation document has been issued. But hidden from the reader is the fact that the policies in the plan will lead to a massive increase of population in the borough of Ealing.
As the council has not come clean on this crucial issue, Ealing Friends of the Earth has estimated the population increase. (This relies extensively on the excellent work of Ealing Matters.) We conclude that the policies in the plan will increase the population of the borough by an astonishing
88,000 people
between 2021 and 2038. This is more than the entire population of St Albans.
We do not pretend this is an accurate estimate. But it is all that is available. It should not be down to hard pressed volunteers to do the work that the council should be doing as an essential part of its Local Plan.
Here is a summary off how we arrived at the population increase of 88,000.
1. Housing units to be delivered between 2021 and 2038 = 43,496 [note 1]
2. Assumed proportion of affordable units based on track record – 22% [note 2]
3. Number of affordable units to be delivered 43,496 x 22% = 9,569.
4. Affordable housing local need = 16,751 [note 4]. (It is assumed for simplicity that “local” equates to LBE.)
5. Assume that new affordable units are occupied by people who are part of local need.
6. Those people move across from existing overcrowded units and from any other component of local need.
7. Only 9,569 unit’s worth of people (out of the local 16,751 unit’s need) can get new affordable accommodation because that is all that will be built. (This is actually a highly optimistic estimate because many so-called “affordable” units are not in fact affordable.)
8. This 9,569 does not change the population because the occupants are already in LBE and move into new affordable units in LBE.
9. All the rest of total new units are occupied by people from outside LBE. Because – if they had been in overcrowded housing in LBE, wanted to move and could afford market rents, those people could have moved out anyway.
10. Number of units occupied by people from outside borough = 43,496 – 9,659 = 33,837.
11. At occupancy of 2.6 [note 11], number of people = 33,837 x 2.6 = 87,976 (2021 to 2038).
Notes
1. Study by Ealing Matters ‘What are the implications of LBE’s housing evidence? 16 January 2024’. Start of endnote 6. (Using council data.)
2. Track record calculated by Ealing Matters. (Using council data.)
4. Local Plan evidence paper ‘Ealing Local Housing Needs Assessment Update Nov 2022’. Figure 4.
11. Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate